Dropbox vs. Spotify IPO: App Intelligence – Alternative Data

Dropbox vs. Spotify IPO: App Intelligence – Alternative Data

Dropbox and Spotify going public is good news for the mobile marketplace so we decided to compare the two apps and their users in Skydeo. Skydeo surveyed over 250 million users from our panel of 875 million uniques.   We also tracked new app downloads during October & November 2017 for both sets of apps.

  • 12% of Dropbox users had Spotify.
  • Dropbox users were 48% more likely to have Spotify installed than non-Dropbox users
  • 22% of Spotify users had Dropbox.
  • Spotify users were 57% more likely to have Dropbox installed than non-Spotify users.

Skydeo DeviceMap

Dropbox and Spotify Users in US by Carrier

Dropbox and Spotify Users in US by Carrier

According to the Dropbox S-1

Our future growth could be harmed if we fail to attract new users or convert registered users to paying users.

We must continually add new users to grow our business beyond our current user base and to replace users who choose not to continue to use our platform. Historically, our revenue has been driven by our self­ serve model, and we generate more than 90% of our revenue from self­serve channels. Any decrease in user satisfaction with our products or support could harm our brand, word ­of ­mouth referrals, and ability to grow.

Additionally, many of our users initially access our platform free of charge. We strive to demonstrate the value of our platform to our registered users, thereby encouraging them to convert to paying users through in­ product prompts and notifications, and time­ limited trials of paid subscription plans. As of December 31, 2017, we served over 500 million registered users but only 11 million paying users. The actual number of unique users is lower than we report as one person may register more than once for our platform. As a result, we have fewer unique registered users that we may be able to convert to paying users. A majority of our registered users may never convert to a paid subscription to our platform.

In addition, our user growth rate may slow in the future as our market penetration rates increase and we turn our focus to converting registered users to paying users rather than growing the total number of registered users. If we are not able to continue to expand our user base or fail to convert our registered users to paying users, demand for our paid services and our revenue may grow more slowly than expected or decline.

Based on Dropbox new app downloads during October & November, their ability to attract new users is strong.  It will be interesting to see if the IPO hype increases new downloads over time.

Skydeo AppGraph Insights

Dropbox vs SpotifyAccording Jeff Bussgang, VC and HBS Lecturer :

Dropbox has a magical business model and the data in the S-1 proves it. The company reports that “we generate over 90% of our revenue from self-serve channels”. Think about that for a minute. The free product is so attractive that it drives massive adoption and the conversion from free to paid is so obvious and smooth (more usage leads to more storage leads to paid product) that the company has a customer acquisition engine that derives from a simply great product and a compelling value proposition. Forget sales and marketing, at Dropbox, the product itself is a massively effective and efficient customer acquisition machine.

Does it cost too much to service all these free customers? Happily, Dropbox is following a cost curve of declining storage and cloud costs. Gross margins have soared from 33% in 2015 to 54% in 2016 to 67% in 2017. If a CEO tells you she is going to increase gross margins from 33% to 67% in two years on a $1 billion revenue business, you would check her in to an insane asylum. Dropbox did it easily.

Spotify Files for IPO

Skydeo PlacesGraph

 Locations of Spotify Users

Locations of Spotify Users

Locations of Dropbox Users

Locations of Dropbox Users

Who is using Bitcoin?  Skydeo Insights by Apps, Age, Gender & Net Worth

Who is using Bitcoin? Skydeo Insights by Apps, Age, Gender & Net Worth

Who is using bitcoin?   Who is investing in ICOs  (initial coin offerings)?

Skydeo recently posted an analysis that showed heavy usage of bitcoin apps by people who owned Teslas.  Those results and Twitter conversations including RunKeeper founder Jason Jacobs , Luma Partner’s Terry Kawaja and Media Ocean’s Bill Wise sparked our interest so we conducted research into bitcoin users and people who might also be investing in ICOs.   While we were preparing the analysis, coin offerings heated up to the point where China banned ICOs  because they have  “seriously disrupted the economic and financial order.”

By the numbers:

Bitcoin ICO Skydeo Insights

Skydeo surveyed over 100,000 bitcoin users from our panel of 607 million mobile devices.

  • 86% of bitcoin users are Male.
  • 65% of bitcoin users are between ages 18-34.
  • Just 9% of bitcoin users are over age 45
  • Only 9% meet the the $1M Net Worth requirement for accredited investors.  If ICOs are securities then 91% of bitcoin users would not qualify by that standard.  They might meet income requirements however.
  • If you use bitcoin you are 67% to 200% more likely to have a net worth over $1 million.
  • Bitcoin users are 25% to 50% more likely to drive an Audi, Infinity, Lexus, Mercedes or BMW than people who don’t use bitcoin.
Launching an ICO?

Targeting mobile users by bitcoin or investment app ownership, auto ownership and household income will likely yield better results for ICO marketers than current marketing efforts, especially if the ICO is considered a security.   Skydeo provides mobile data for brands, agencies and investment research.

Is Skydeo considering an initial coin offering?

We can’t comment yet but there it would be a natural fit to tie mobile data to cryptocurrency.

 

Tesla Owners Mobile Personas – Skydeo Insights

Tesla Owners Mobile Personas – Skydeo Insights

Want to own a Tesla?  Start investing!

In a recent panel study of 340 million mobile users, Skydeo analyzed Tesla car owners mobile app interests compared to non-Tesla car owners and the results are intriguing.  Tesla owners were 72 to 103 times more likely to have Charles Schwab or eTrade Investment accounts.   The image of Tesla owners as tech savvy, high income individuals is supported by their use of Bitcoin (48x), Robinhood (27x), Mint (20x) and Venmo (15x).  Tesla owners have a high propensity to use food & delivery apps (62x) and shopping apps like Amazon Prime, Best Buy and AliExpress.  Surprisingly, Tesla owners have a cost conscious side as they used coupon shopping apps like Slickdeals, Key Ring, Groupon and RetailMeNot.   Skydeo Insights enables brands to analyze users by traditional metrics like age, gender, income, home ownership plus mobile segments like apps, locations, device, carrier, etc.  Skydeo limited this analysis to finance and shopping apps.

Skydeo CEO Mike Ford said “For top brands and agencies, mobile insights are simply the best way to develop user personas to use for product marketing, business intelligence andmedia planning for digital, radio and TV.  The mobile personas of their car owners clearly supports Elon Musk’s vision for the Tesla brand.”

Tesla Owners Mobile Insights by Skydeo

Create Your Own Custom Mobile Audience

According to Fortune Magazine:

Edmunds, the California-based car-buying platform, examined registration data of all 1,600 Tesla Model S vehicles that have ever been sold in the pre-owned market in the U.S.   Edmunds also found that owners of used Model S are younger. About 10% of pre-owned Model S buyers are millennials, ages 18 to 34, compared to just 6% of those who purchase a new one.  An Edmunds analysis released earlier this month found millennials are leasing vehicles at higher rates than the overall car-buying population and they’re opting for more luxurious, tech-forward cars than they could otherwise afford to buy.  Millennials are particularly attracted to leasing Ram, GMC, and Lexus brands.   California’s share of used Model S sales is only 30.5%, compared to its 42.5% share of all new sales, according to Edmunds, which examined registration data of all 1,600 Tesla Model S vehicles have ever been sold in the pre-owned market in the U.S.   The Tesla brand has migrated into different age and earning demographics. Some 36% of all used Model S buyers earn less than $100,000 a year. Only 25% of new Model S buyers have salaries under $100,000.

 

Skydeo joins DCU Fintech Innovation Center in Boston

Skydeo joins DCU Fintech Innovation Center in Boston

Skydeo recently joined the DCU Fintech Innovation Center on Atlantic Ave in Boston. Skydeo’s base of hedge funds and investment research clients plus it’s core strength in consumer marketing made the center an excellent fit.

Skydeo CEO Mike Ford:   “We’re excited to be part of the DCU Fintech community.  The center has already helped us connect to a potential partner and product resources. As we expand our engineering team in the coming year, the center’s great location will help.

Skydeo has offices in Boston and New York City.

The DCU FinTech Innovation Center (the “Center”), the leading program focused exclusively on powering the next generation of financial technology companies in New England, announced today the 10 new seed-stage ventures in the Center’s latest Cohort. The Center is the collaborative effort between Digital Federal Credit Union, better known as DCU, and Boston-based coworking network company, Workbar.

The June 2017 Cohort Includes:

  • Coalesce.Info – Data & Analytics – Speeds-up research and analysis with machine learning.
  • Intelligent Lending Advisers – P2P Lending – Buy side investing in peer to peer loans.
  • IRAengine – Alternative Investments – Enabling pension fund investing in alternative investments.
  • Keel – Investment Platform – Credible investment ideas from verified peer investors.
  • MakeCents – Payments – A mobile solution for cash.
  • Matchupbox – Blockchain – Digital identity as a service for banking and insurance.
  • Skydeo – Data & Analytics – Mobile audience data and insights.
  • Spotme – P2P Lending – Structure, execute and track a personal micro-loan.
  • Tengu – Blockchain – Smart payments platform.
  • Virtual Cove – Data & Analytics – Immersive reality solution for understanding big and/or wide datasets.

The Center accepts seed-stage FinTech startups varying from concept to product fit stage that can benefit from the FinTech ecosystem of mentors, investors, and institutions provided by the Center. DCU executives offer mentorship, assistance, and an open platform for working with the startups. Admitted startups receive one year of free office space at the Center, located in Boston’s financial hub and near the major transportation center South Station. There is neither a cash nor equity payment required from any participating company.

Vasilios Roussos, Managing Director

Vasilios Roussos, Managing Director of the Center, remarked, “We are incredibly excited to help foster the continued growth of New England’s FinTech ecosystem. This cohort represents an incredibly strong group of 10 selected from over 60 applications. It has been truly inspiring to see the depth of talent and technology in this ecosystem.”

David Araujo, DCU CTO

“The diverse mix of problem-solving concepts represented in this year’s cohort is fantastic,” stated David Araujo, DCU’s Vice President of Technology. “We look forward to working with the incoming teams to develop, test, market, and scale their products to be ready for future growth in the rapidly-changing world of financial services.”

Founded in June of 2014 and relaunched in the fall of 2016, the Center has been building on its strengths by identifying the most promising financial technology startups, connecting them with world-class enterprise customers and partners, and ultimately helping to prepare them for broader commercial success. The new cohort began recently and applications for the December 2017 Cohort will open in the fall of 2017.

About the DCU FinTech Innovation Center
The DCU FinTech Innovation Center is the leading sponsor of FinTech startups in New England and is dedicated to fostering FinTech startups and the Boston FinTech community. The Center focuses on helping startups gain initial customer traction and provides seed-stage FinTech startups with one year of free mentorship, workspace, community, and a professional network. The Center is fully funded by DCU, is supported by DCU executives, and is operated by Workbar.

For additional information, visit http://www.dcufintech.org.

About DCU
DCU is a not-for-profit financial cooperative based in Massachusetts that serves over 600,000 members across all 50 states. DCU offers a full range of financial services to consumers and businesses, including banking, lending, financial management, insurance, and realty.

For additional information, visit http://www.dcu.org.

About Workbar
Workbar creates great places to work that bring the ideal office to you: convenient, affordable, and populated by a friendly mix of motivated professionals. Its growing network of high quality coworking spaces offers independent professionals, small businesses, startups, remote teams, and enterprise employees a mix of comfortable work space, meeting space, and amenities.

For additional information, visit http://www.workbar.com.