Dropbox vs. Spotify IPO: App Intelligence – Alternative Data

Dropbox vs. Spotify IPO: App Intelligence – Alternative Data

Dropbox and Spotify going public is good news for the mobile marketplace so we decided to compare the two apps and their users in Skydeo. Skydeo surveyed over 250 million users from our panel of 875 million uniques.   We also tracked new app downloads during October & November 2017 for both sets of apps.

  • 12% of Dropbox users had Spotify.
  • Dropbox users were 48% more likely to have Spotify installed than non-Dropbox users
  • 22% of Spotify users had Dropbox.
  • Spotify users were 57% more likely to have Dropbox installed than non-Spotify users.

Skydeo DeviceMap

Dropbox and Spotify Users in US by Carrier

Dropbox and Spotify Users in US by Carrier

According to the Dropbox S-1

Our future growth could be harmed if we fail to attract new users or convert registered users to paying users.

We must continually add new users to grow our business beyond our current user base and to replace users who choose not to continue to use our platform. Historically, our revenue has been driven by our self­ serve model, and we generate more than 90% of our revenue from self­serve channels. Any decrease in user satisfaction with our products or support could harm our brand, word ­of ­mouth referrals, and ability to grow.

Additionally, many of our users initially access our platform free of charge. We strive to demonstrate the value of our platform to our registered users, thereby encouraging them to convert to paying users through in­ product prompts and notifications, and time­ limited trials of paid subscription plans. As of December 31, 2017, we served over 500 million registered users but only 11 million paying users. The actual number of unique users is lower than we report as one person may register more than once for our platform. As a result, we have fewer unique registered users that we may be able to convert to paying users. A majority of our registered users may never convert to a paid subscription to our platform.

In addition, our user growth rate may slow in the future as our market penetration rates increase and we turn our focus to converting registered users to paying users rather than growing the total number of registered users. If we are not able to continue to expand our user base or fail to convert our registered users to paying users, demand for our paid services and our revenue may grow more slowly than expected or decline.

Based on Dropbox new app downloads during October & November, their ability to attract new users is strong.  It will be interesting to see if the IPO hype increases new downloads over time.

Skydeo AppGraph Insights

Dropbox vs SpotifyAccording Jeff Bussgang, VC and HBS Lecturer :

Dropbox has a magical business model and the data in the S-1 proves it. The company reports that “we generate over 90% of our revenue from self-serve channels”. Think about that for a minute. The free product is so attractive that it drives massive adoption and the conversion from free to paid is so obvious and smooth (more usage leads to more storage leads to paid product) that the company has a customer acquisition engine that derives from a simply great product and a compelling value proposition. Forget sales and marketing, at Dropbox, the product itself is a massively effective and efficient customer acquisition machine.

Does it cost too much to service all these free customers? Happily, Dropbox is following a cost curve of declining storage and cloud costs. Gross margins have soared from 33% in 2015 to 54% in 2016 to 67% in 2017. If a CEO tells you she is going to increase gross margins from 33% to 67% in two years on a $1 billion revenue business, you would check her in to an insane asylum. Dropbox did it easily.

Spotify Files for IPO

Skydeo PlacesGraph

 Locations of Spotify Users

Locations of Spotify Users

Locations of Dropbox Users

Locations of Dropbox Users

NFL Fan Market Share Report 2017

NFL Fan Market Share Report 2017

The NFL Playoffs were in full swing this weekend so we fired up the Skydeo Insights machine while we watched.

Which NFL team is the most popular with fans?  Who is really “America’s Team”?  What impact does fan popularity have on team success?

Skydeo used our panel of 850 million unique mobile devices to survey NFL fans from the 2017 season.  For the purposes of this analysis, fan market share or popularity is based on the mobile app downloads of each NFL team.   How did your team do?

NFL Fan Market Share Report - Skydeo Mobile Insights


Who is using Bitcoin?  Skydeo Insights by Apps, Age, Gender & Net Worth

Who is using Bitcoin? Skydeo Insights by Apps, Age, Gender & Net Worth

Who is using bitcoin?   Who is investing in ICOs  (initial coin offerings)?

Skydeo recently posted an analysis that showed heavy usage of bitcoin apps by people who owned Teslas.  Those results and Twitter conversations including RunKeeper founder Jason Jacobs , Luma Partner’s Terry Kawaja and Media Ocean’s Bill Wise sparked our interest so we conducted research into bitcoin users and people who might also be investing in ICOs.   While we were preparing the analysis, coin offerings heated up to the point where China banned ICOs  because they have  “seriously disrupted the economic and financial order.”

By the numbers:

Bitcoin ICO Skydeo Insights

Skydeo surveyed over 100,000 bitcoin users from our panel of 607 million mobile devices.

  • 86% of bitcoin users are Male.
  • 65% of bitcoin users are between ages 18-34.
  • Just 9% of bitcoin users are over age 45
  • Only 9% meet the the $1M Net Worth requirement for accredited investors.  If ICOs are securities then 91% of bitcoin users would not qualify by that standard.  They might meet income requirements however.
  • If you use bitcoin you are 67% to 200% more likely to have a net worth over $1 million.
  • Bitcoin users are 25% to 50% more likely to drive an Audi, Infinity, Lexus, Mercedes or BMW than people who don’t use bitcoin.
Launching an ICO?

Targeting mobile users by bitcoin or investment app ownership, auto ownership and household income will likely yield better results for ICO marketers than current marketing efforts, especially if the ICO is considered a security.   Skydeo provides mobile data for brands, agencies and investment research.

Is Skydeo considering an initial coin offering?

We can’t comment yet but there it would be a natural fit to tie mobile data to cryptocurrency.